USA now stands close to being only one point away from South Africa

According to Grant Wahl’s math, the US is now only one-point away from qualification after its win over T&T, Honduras’ loss and Costa Rica’s catastrophic defeat in El Salvador.

Pretty amazing turn of events, isn’t it?

UPDATE: According to my commenters, Grant might not be as good at math as a I thought.

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18 thoughts on “USA now stands close to being only one point away from South Africa

  1. I don’t think that is accurate. A tie with Honduras puts us at 17. A loss to CR leaves us at 17, and a win to Honduras in the final game puts them at 17 with a better goal differential. And that scenario could have CR winning the last two games and finishing second behind Mexico. We’d be fourth.

    We are guaranteed to finish at least fourth right now. A tie against CR puts us through regardless of the Honduras result.

  2. Grant’s off a little. If we draw in Honduras, but lose to Costa Rica, and Mexico win both, while Honduras beats El Salvador, and Costa Rica beats Trinidad in their next match, we’re in 4th.

  3. Assuming that the first tie breaker is goal differential, not head to head, I don’t think that is true. If the US tied Honduras and lost to Costa Rica they could still finish fourth on goal differential to Honduras.

  4. I got beat to the punch. Although I will say that Mexico doesn’t even need to win both or either for the US to finish fourth. They could also tie both.

  5. … and Costa Rico ties or loses against T&T at home, we’re in with that one point.

    If we tie against Hondurus and Costa Rico wins, we still need a tie against Costa Rico.

    If we lose at Hondurus, we can still get in with a tie against Costa Rico. They win next game and we lose, they sit at 15 to our 16.

    So, if that one point comes against Costa Rico, he’s right.

  6. Technically, a Costa Rica tie vs. T&T doesn’t automatically qualify us, it just means that CR would have to beat the U.S. by 10 goals in RFK to overcome the (current) goal differential, and that’s only if the U.S. gets 0 pts. v. Honduras.

  7. We do have a magic number* of 2. Any combination of 2 points gained by USA or 2 points dropped by Costa Rica will see us qualify automatically. Theoretically, we could lose to Honduras and still lock up an automatic spot if, ahem, Trinidad beats Costa Rica at Saprissa.

    *this assumes we don’t give up our 9 goal advantage in GD

  8. That’s basically right, but you’re not taking goal differential into account. Admittedly, goal differential is a long shot.

    Kinda like needing to win 3-0 against Egypt, and simultaneously needing Brazil to beat Italy by 3-0.

  9. This is all Americans need to know.

    Americans will not win @Honduras. Costa will beat Trinidad and Tobago at home. What does this mean?

    The winner between Costa Rica and the United States on the last hex date will have a direct flight to South Africa the loser plays South American 5th. The U.S. can also go direct with a tie against C.R.

  10. Based on how we are playing, anything is possible… Whatever confidence and good form we mustered from the CC is now long gone… we look beatable and lethargic… Odds are we make it in, but if this form continues into the WC, we’ll be boarding flights after round 1 again…

  11. Do your homework Stollar. The US is 2 points away, not 1. A draw at Honduras and a loss to CRC coupled with other expected results and we are in 4th.

  12. No it wouldn’t. It would be a draw or close win for Argentina in the US, and then an absolute demolition derby down there. Don’t kid yourself; a US-anyone playoff would not be enjoyable, unless you aren’t a US fan. In which case- I have to agree, the prospects are pretty intriguing.

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